Day 2, Russian Aggression on Ukraine – Experts’ Comments

Historians from this point forward in human history will talk about the war crimes of Russian Fascism just as they talk about the past actions of Nazi Germany.  It won’t be fair because the peoples of Russia rejected Vladimir Putin in the 2012 Presidential Election, although he claimed victory because of the falsification of the votes.  I personally knew one those responsible for managing a voter district who explained that he had been given the vote total in advance. So, the one thing that is real in this criminal Russian War against Ukraine – the very state that Russia swore to respect its borders – is that Vladimir Putin is not the real president of the peoples of Russia.  But it is not enough to simply plan for his trial for crimes against humanity; it is necessary to deliver him into the dock!  This process must begin by denying Putin’s forces victory in his very personal war on Ukraine.  On each and every point of the nine elements of Russian New Generation Warfare (NGW) he must be defeated: Among the nonkinetic elements of NGW, the world must be compelled to reject his lies; the Ukrainian state is not conducting genocide against Russian speakers, and the Ukrainian Government in not led by Nazis.  With regard to the kinetic elements of NGW, Putin’s troops are attacking a free and independent society, and that society needs to be provided the means by which to defend itself.  The world’s liberal democracies must think through the means by which to securely transfer whatever types of weapons and ammunition/explosives are required by Ukrainian freedom fighters to prevent Russian troops from ever ending Ukrainian resistance.  Finally, the United States, Britain, and France must conduct a tough public nuclear conversation to (not with) Vladimir Putin.  Collectively – these nuclear powers among the liberal democratic community of nations – must make clear to Putin that he and his fellow criminal cult are the enemy, and therefore will be the target of Western nuclear strikes if he attempts to employ nuclear weapons against any state.  Putin must know that, henceforth, he will not be permitted to threaten nuclear use with impunity.  This time, Putin even dared to suggest that he had “new types” nuclear weapons (reminding most historians of Hitler’s hope that new weapons would help him avoid his impending fate as well), so this fool needs to be reminded that the United States has not been idling year after year in the field of global warfare (it just hasn’t been threatening people with these new capabilities).

Phillip A. Petersen Ph.D., President, Centre for the Study of New Generation Warfare

Autocrat Putin has spent recent months expertly executing in parallel all 9 elements of New Generation Warfare, from inserting malign influence and other offensive cyber actions to destroy western liberal democracies (including Ukraine) to the use of hard power such as the missiles and tanks used in this unlawful invasion to the threat of nuclear weapons (and note the successful first day objective to secure Chernobyl which he has already threatened to destroy with catastrophic impact to the region – after 24 February, does any doubt what he is capable of?). The West must defend this democracy and with more than sanctions whose effect won’t matter much once the freely elected regime in Ukraine is replaced by a Putin-selected autocratic puppet. The West and NATO, so far reactive organizations, must now become exactly what Putin fears, an offensive threat whose goal is to remove this war criminal from power and return the governance of these people to someone of their own choosing. Without this change in disposition, I can assure you NATO countries facing Russia, will be next.

Greg Melcher, Chief Operations Officer Centre for the Study of New Generation Warfare, USA

Russian armed aggression against Ukraine has started in 2014, but now we are watching a scale of military aggression that has not been seen since the Second World War. Ukraine is fighting not only for its survival but for all European and Western Civilizations in general. In this fight, Kyiv does not need another round of condolences and calls for diplomacy. What is really needed is the immediate provision of armaments, humanitarian and economic support. The widespread strong sanctions are also necessary, but their results have a time lag. At the same time, fundamental rebuilding of European military capabilities is a matter of survival, along with the decisive strengthening of the NATO Eastern flank.

Liudas Zdanavičius, The Director of the Strategic Level Lithuanian National Security and Defence Courses, Policy analyst The Centre for Defence Analysis, The General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania

The soul aches, the body is in pain! No war is just about weapons, soldiers, or operations at the border. A military attack swallows everyone’s energy, destroys the wishes, hopes and dreams of many innocent outsiders and civilians. And increases everyone’s fear, horror, and hopelessness. Even the reconstruction will take years. Oh, my dear Europe – what a terrible day!

Laura Kolbe, Professor , University of Helsinki

We as the security research community for the long period have been alerting the policy makers and the public about the plausibility of similar scenarios resulting from the re-emergency of Russia as one of the leading malicious global actors. Nevertheless, unfortunately it seems we have failed to be persuasive enough to address these issues to the right address and prevent today’s Ukraine e from happening.  However, we need to be aware that Ukraine may not be the only hot zone where Russian will try to use its malicious influence to provoke massive arm conflicts and aggression. Ukraine may be only the sparking light for the series of similar development that may happen everywhere where Russian influence has been neglected for long period of time. Western Balkans may well be one of such arenas. Hence, it is a task of research community to follow closely the developments in our region and to report any possible tendency of such development. Nevertheless, prior to that it is a task of state governments and of the involved international community to take seriously the recommendations provided by various credible reports which shows that the malicious Russian is not only present but also potent to provoke a large-scale escalating conflict.

Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies

Today’s attack on Ukraine from Russia almost from every side, with all it’s savagery marks a special chapter in bringing down all the international norms regarding the relations between sovereign countries. Infatuated with the role of “the almighty” Russia started the bleeding of the “disobedient neighbor” stepping over it’s people with the aim of submission and humiliation and this way giving the savage and most anti-human message possible. There are many dimensions of this murderous attach, which whether we like to say it or not, from what is seen so far, has the ultimate aim to overthrow the current international order. First, it has been quite some time now that Putin’s Russia, conscious of many developments from the inside, has been pursuing the logic of finding guardian culpable, respectively the un-submissive from the former “joint home” and now has chosen Ukraine the “culprit” to subdue until humiliation and with this “victory” to make it’s moves towards the democratic world that thinks and acts different from Russia. This behavior, under Putin’s leadership, is the worst example and as such will bring dire consequences for Russia itself, respectively for its people. Second, regardless of the “enthusiasm” with which Putin might be expecting the “first results”, they have embarked on a road to bloodshed of a nation not so small numerically and with special potentials, it is a dead end road. It will end in harsh consequences for themselves also. Third, in this bloody direction, Putin is trying to justify the attack towards Ukraine with the example of the independence of Kosova, which had already passed all the “circles of hell” wit the sacrifice of many generations until it’s freedom. This is “taking care of the little brother” Serbia and feeding continuously the illusions with the aim of upholding the tensions in the West Balkans. To maintain its “equilibrium” it is not far from the reason that Russia will encourage a new conflict in this region. Unfortunately, this logic warms many of those that caused the bloodshed in the former Yugoslavia. Kosova has paid for its freedom with blood! Fourth, all the democratic states and especially the NATO members, should have realized that Putin has made his bet to “test with blood” their power and resolve to stand up to this madness. Joint mobilization to give a deserved answer to this dangerous test, would express not only the solidarity with Ukraine and its freedom loving people, but at the same time would act as a barrier and red line which should not be trespassed. Fifth, all countries which were previously members of the USSR, except those which have their “hands and feet tied” until humiliation, have enjoyed life outside of the Russian tutelage. They will not give up their freedom. Neither will Ukraine!

Fatmir Sejdiu, 1st President of Republic of Kosovo