Changing geopolitics and gas infrastructure in Central Asia. China's role in the region.
Mikolaj Tauber, January 15, 2010
Over the past few months, the gas system within the CIS has significantly changed, particularly in Central Asia. A major player, capable to manage its own resources, has emerged. Turkmenistan used to be almost totally dependent on Russian imports (90% of natural gas was bought at dumped prices from Gazprom). Multi-vector foreign policy of Ashkhabad initiated in 2007 by Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov brings first positive changes[1].
Diversification of gas export routes was achieved by constructing two new pipelines: Turkmenistan-China[2] gas pipeline and Turkmenistan-Iran pipeline. Expected capacity of the first pipeline is 40 billion m3 by 2013, and the second one’s is 10 billion m3. These projects have strengthened the regional position not only of Turkmenistan but also Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The change of the balance of power in the region was mainly caused by gas pipeline Turkmenistan-China, because it gives both these countries the status of the transit countries, paving the way for their gas to the East.
Another element of strengthening the position of Turkmenistan is the presence of huge gas reserves South Yolotan-Osman. Turkmenistan is going to use its own capacities to manage the resources, and will try to downgrade companies and foreign investors to subcontractors.
Russia and, in particular, the European Union seem to have lost the game. Over half of Turkmen gas flows eastward. According to the declarations, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will also export its gas through this pipeline.
China's policy in Central Asia seems to be effective. China skillfully exploits its potential of political economic and diplomatic efficiency[3]. China is perfectly making use of any error made by its main rival in Central Asia – Russia[4]. China’s tactics in Central Asia is very far-sighted and mild. China is perfectly aware that the region's key wealth is water, especially for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. As a result, the Chinese plan to carry out dozens of water projects (dams, hydropowers, water storages) on the Irtysh and Ili rivers, which take their origin in western China, flow through Kazakhstan to end up in two large lakes: Balkhash and Zaysan Koli. Now the Chinese know that even a slight decrease in the water level in these rivers during a certain period of time will have disastrous environmental, economic, and perhaps political implications for the entire region. In the years to come, water will be another very effective tool in China's regional policy. These circumstances will strengthen the role and impact of China in Central Asia. China will supplant not only European and American interests, but in the near future, probably those of Russia too.
Diversification of gas export routes in the Central-Asian countries will change the exporters’ status quo over the time. It has allowed them to raise gas prices to world market levels, which will directly contribute to increasing government revenue. Turkmenistan's income derived from natural gas imports to China is expected to be approximately 8 billion dollars a year. So huge financial assets can develop well-managed economy and strengthen the position of Turkmenistan in the region. Political advantages are, i.a., becoming independent from Russia, and changing the position of Ashkhabad in international relations. Central Asia is now an active and interesting arena in which the interests of the biggest world powers clash. Everything seems to indicate that this trend will not change.
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1. Although the contract for the construction of the gas pipeline Turkmenistan-China was signed by the former president Saparmurat Niyazov, it is the current president Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov who gave an impetus to the project.
2. The pipeline Turkmenistan-China is the world's longest one – about 7000 km long: 1833 km goes through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and 5500 km through China.
3. China financed the entire pipeline Turkmenistan-China. The construction lasted just 3 years. This shows the great importance of this project to China.
4. China has diminished the influence of Russia in the region. Russia has been present there since tsarist regime. On the other hand, you can not forget that the Chinese were present long before the expansion of Russian, later Soviet. Beijing's success is attributed to errors committed by the Russian diplomats, which is not quite certain.
5. This enormous lake is approximately 20 000 km², 565km in length, 72km in width, and 26m in depth.
6. Lake in Kazakhstan, in the mountainous valley between the mountains of Altai and Tarbagatai. The lake is part of the Bukhtarma Reservoir that was created through the firewall of the Bukhtarma power station. The lake’s surface is 1810 km² and its depth is 10m. The lake is the ending point of the Black River Irtysh, and the starting point of the Irtysh River. The Zaysan Lake is used for fish farming, shipping electricity generation.
7. For the 5 million-citizen Turkmenistan such amounts are crucial insofar as they provide opportunities for economic development. They also allow independent management of the rich gas fields. Turkmenistan will buy technologies and hire subcontractors, thus drawing major financial profits from the gas sales. The role of Turkmenistan will continue to grow as it has favorable geographical location, and a maritime border allows it to build energy bridges in all directions.
Mikolaj Tauber, Coordinator for relations with Central Asia, South Caucasus and Iran,
Analyst - energy policy, economic, political issues inside CIS Region
mikolaj.tauber@gmail.com; m.tauber@isw.org.pl;